For UFC 156, Jason’s Picks is focusing on two of the co-main events of the evening: the heavyweight bout between the returning Alistair Overeem and Antonio Silva, as well as Overeem’s teammate Rashad Evans and Silva’s countryman Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
One note about the predictive model: in order to test its accuracy, it is often helpful to do a “blind test” of previous fights – that is, to “predict” the fights that have already taken place (without first looking at the actual results, of course) and then compare the “prediction” with the actual outcome. For example, in just such a test, the model “predicted” 95% of Rashad Evans’ previous fights accurately.
On to the model predictions:
Heavyweight: Alistair Overeem vs. Antonio Silva
For this heavyweight bout, the algorithm used only Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español’s editor’s ratings, not the quantitative metrics. Since Overeem has very high ratings due to his well-roundedness in submissions, striking, and wrestling – more so than his opponent Silva – he exceeds a certain threshold, and once heavyweights exceed that threshold, they are very likely to win.
For that reason, the model predicts that Overeem has an 89% likelihood of victory.
Light Heavyweight: Rashad Evans vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Rashad Evans fell into a pattern within the model that showed his combined takedown and striking accuracy was significantly greater than Antonio Rogerio Nogueira’s. In addition, Evans’ subjective ratings by Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español’s editor exceeded a certain threshold. Thus, the model used a combination of both the editor’s ratings and Evans’ quantitative metrics in order to make a prediction and showed Evans has a 79% probability of winning.
Jason’s Picks can be tracked on http://jaysha101.wix.com/mmapredictiveanalytics
Editor’s Note: This is the eighth in a series of fight predictions by guest columnist Jason Noriega, an analyst at a web-based trading site. Jason participates in predictive modeling competitions, where he has placed in the top 10% using various machine learning algorithms. He also lectures around the United States.
The predictive model developed by Jason Noriega for Jason’s Picks is the copyrighted intellectual property of Jason Noriega, Nery Castillo-McIntyre, and Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español.