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Jason’s Picks: UFC 143

Para leer la traducción en español, oprimir aquí. (To read the Spanish translation, click here).

The MMA predictive model’s accuracy for UFC on FOX 2 in Chicago, IL was 2 out of 3 correct, by no means perfect but nonetheless acceptable. Remember, I am still in the early stages of building the model, and it may take up to a year to gather enough data to find stable predictive patterns.

Thus far, the model has accurately predicted 9 out of 13 fight outcomes, for an overall year-to-date accuracy of 69%.  I will stay with the same decision tree technique, CHAID (Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detector) for UFC 143.

The model’s predictions for UFC 143 are below:

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Diaz

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Werdum

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Koscheck

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Barao

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman

Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway: Poirier

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa: Figueroa

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope: Brown

Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper: Natal

Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson: Thompson

Editor’s Note: This is the fourth in a series of fight predictions by guest columnist Jason Noriega. Jason works as an analyst at a U.S. National Laboratory. He has a keen interest in predictive modeling, and lectures around the United States. Jason also participates in predictive modeling competitions and has placed in the top 10% in a number of them using various machine learning algorithms.

The predictive model developed by Jason Noriega for Jason’s Picks is the copyrighted intellectual property of Jason Noriega, Nery Castillo-McIntyre, and Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español.


Acerca de Nery Castillo-McIntyre

Soy un apasionado fanático del deporte de Artes Marciales Mixtas. Mi deseo es proveer noticias, educación, y comentario original al público hispano-hablante acerca de este excitante deporte que se postula a competir por popularidad mundial con gigantes como el balompié, el baloncesto, el béisbol, y el football americano. Espero que los lectores encuentren este espacio muy informativo, y que se contagien con mi misma fiebre de Artes Marciales Mixtas.


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  1. Pingback: Selecciones de Jason: UFC 143 « Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español - Jueves, febrero 02, 2012

  2. Pingback: Jason’s Picks: UFC on FUEL TV « Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español - Miércoles, febrero 15, 2012


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