The MMA predictive model’s accuracy for UFC on FOX 2 in Chicago, IL was 2 out of 3 correct, by no means perfect but nonetheless acceptable. Remember, I am still in the early stages of building the model, and it may take up to a year to gather enough data to find stable predictive patterns.
Thus far, the model has accurately predicted 9 out of 13 fight outcomes, for an overall year-to-date accuracy of 69%. I will stay with the same decision tree technique, CHAID (Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detector) for UFC 143.
The model’s predictions for UFC 143 are below:
Editor’s Note: This is the fourth in a series of fight predictions by guest columnist Jason Noriega. Jason works as an analyst at a U.S. National Laboratory. He has a keen interest in predictive modeling, and lectures around the United States. Jason also participates in predictive modeling competitions and has placed in the top 10% in a number of them using various machine learning algorithms.
The predictive model developed by Jason Noriega for Jason’s Picks is the copyrighted intellectual property of Jason Noriega, Nery Castillo-McIntyre, and Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español.