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Jason’s Picks: UFC on FOX 2

Para leer la traducción en español, oprimir aquí. (To read the Spanish translation, click here).

The results of UFC on FX in Nashville, TN sparked some interesting ideas for improvements to the predictive model.  3 out of 5 predictions were correct.  For the year, the model is at 70% accuracy.

As Pat Barry showed with his takedown and submission defense against Christian Morecraft, fighters change. And so it is with predictive modeling, an important part of which is learning from past mistakes, and using those mistakes in order to make improvements to the model continuously.  To that end, I am making one major change for my next set of predictions: I will base many of the metrics, variables and predictive patterns on more recent fights, so as to include a shorter historical timeframe .

I will now include only the last 3 fights of each mixed martial artist. Thus, whether a fighter evolves, stagnates or devolves, the model should be able to capture that trend; for example, Tito Ortiz is not the same dominant fighter he was 6 or more years ago.

In my previous post, I mentioned I changed to the machine learning algorithm called Random Forest, a modeling technique that uses the latest and greatest mathematical methods to produce accurate results.  However, a downside of Random Forest is that the results are generated in a black box; that is, one cannot see the patterns that make up the predictions. For that reason, I am reverting to a simple decision tree algorithm that allows visualization of the patterns that make up the predictions. Nevertheless, as the dataset grows to a decent size and I discover what is important, I may again use Random Forest, a more powerful technique.

Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis

Fighter Pics Courtesy of ufc.com

For the main event, the model has chosen Phil Davis to win based on his striking, takedown, and submission performance in his last 3 fights.  One could argue that Rashad Evans has faced tougher competition, but Davis has put out some incredible fighting statistics.

Chael Sonnen vs. Michael Bisping

Fighter Pics Courtesy of ufc.com

For the co-main event of the evening, the model has picked Chael Sonnen to win.  He has superior takedown advantage, and has more accurate striking.  He has also faced tougher competition.  Chael’s wrestling advantage and takedown effectiveness will be too much for Michael Bisping.

Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman

Fighter Pics Courtesy of ufc.com

For the third fight of the night, the model has predicted a Chris Weidman victory.  His takedown success rate is superior, due to his wrestling background; he also has 2 impressive submission victories in his last 3 fights. Again, one can argue that Demian Maia has fought tougher competition, but I have not yet figured out the best way to include that variable into the model’s equation.

Here are the results from last weekend’s event.

UFC on FX in Nashville, TN

Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller: Miller (Correct)

Josh Neer vs. Duane Ludwig: Neer (Correct)

Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft: Morecraft (Incorrect)

Jorge Rivera vs. Eric Schafer: Schafer (Incorrect)

Charlie Brenneman vs. Daniel Roberts: Brenneman (Correct)


Editor’s Note: This is the third in a series of fight predictions by guest columnist Jason Noriega. Jason works as an analyst at a U.S. National Laboratory. He has a keen interest in predictive modeling, and lectures around the United States. Jason also participates in predictive modeling competitions and has placed in the top 10% in a number of them using various machine learning algorithms.

The predictive model developed by Jason Noriega for Jason’s Picks is the copyrighted intellectual property of Jason Noriega, Nery Castillo-McIntyre, and Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español.


Acerca de Nery Castillo-McIntyre

Soy un apasionado fanático del deporte de Artes Marciales Mixtas. Mi deseo es proveer noticias, educación, y comentario original al público hispano-hablante acerca de este excitante deporte que se postula a competir por popularidad mundial con gigantes como el balompié, el baloncesto, el béisbol, y el football americano. Espero que los lectores encuentren este espacio muy informativo, y que se contagien con mi misma fiebre de Artes Marciales Mixtas.


8 comentarios en “Jason’s Picks: UFC on FOX 2

  1. Hey this is kind of of off topic but I was wanting to know if
    blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code
    with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding experience so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

    Publicado por tyreetee | Lunes, octubre 15, 2012, 04:00am
    • Thanks for visiting,

      Actually, it is kind of a mix. For instance, when you post videos to your blog, you post the code, i.e. WYSINWYG. But, for most everything else, especially in wordpress, it is pretty straightforward. Hope this helps. Otherwise, wordpress has some pretty good directions.

      Publicado por Nery Castillo-McIntyre | Martes, octubre 16, 2012, 09:25pm
  2. Hi! I understand this is sort of off-topic however I had to ask.

    Does running a well-established website such as yours require a
    massive amount work? I’m brand new to operating a blog however I do write in my diary daily. I’d like
    to start a blog so I can easily share my personal experience and thoughts online.
    Please let me know if you have any kind of suggestions or tips for brand new
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    Publicado por Bev | Domingo, diciembre 16, 2012, 06:16pm
    • Hi There,

      Given that you write in your diary daily, you probably have a head start – especially if you cut back a little on the diary and use that time to write on your blog. Doing both will be challenging, and eventually one of them will have to give some way to the other. The most important thing to keep your blog going is to be passionate about your subject; that is true particularly those times when the blog feels more like work than fun.

      Thanks for visiting.


      Publicado por Nery Castillo-McIntyre | Lunes, diciembre 17, 2012, 08:42am
  3. What’s up to all, because I am genuinely keen of reading this website’s post to be updated on
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    Publicado por Anchor1 | Martes, diciembre 25, 2012, 03:00am


  1. Pingback: Selecciones de Jason: UFC en FOX 2 « Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español - Viernes, enero 27, 2012

  2. Pingback: Jason’s Picks: UFC 143 « Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español - Jueves, febrero 02, 2012


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