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Eventos, Jason's Picks, Selecciones de Jason

Jason’s Picks: UFC on FX

Para leer la traducción en Español, oprimir aquí. (To read the Spanish translation, click here).

Editor’s Note: This is the second in a series of fight predictions by guest columnist Jason Noriega. Jason works as an analyst at a U.S. National Laboratory. He has a keen interest in predictive modeling, and lectures around the United States. Jason also participates in predictive modeling competitions and has placed in the top 10% in a number of them using various machine learning algorithms.

The predictive model developed by Jason Noriega for Jason’s Picks is the copyrighted intellectual property of Jason Noriega, Nery Castillo-McIntyre, and Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español.

The biggest assumption in predictive modeling is that the past is a good predictor of the future.  Figure 1 displays the process followed at a high level.  This involves taking historical MMA data and applying an advanced algorithm to develop a model.  The model can then be applied to future MMA events to get predictions.

Figure 1: Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español Predictive Modeling Process

For UFC 142 in Rio, I used the outcomes of 42 historical UFC fights in order to develop my statistical model.  I used the CHAID algorithm to predict who would win and lose (CHAID stands for Chi square – or Χ2 – Automatic Interaction Detector). The event was a good first test for the model’s performance.  It predicted correctly 4 out of the 5 fights in the main card, with an accuracy of 80%*.

José Aldo vs. Chad Mendes: Aldo (correct)

Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson: Johnson (incorrect)

Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio: Palhares (correct)

Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater: Silva (correct)*

Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim: Barboza (correct)

*I classified the Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater fight outcome as correct due to Silva’s dominant performance and the controversial DQ by the referee.

OVERALL ACCURACY YEAR TO DATE: 80%

For the next event, UFC on FX in Nashville, TN I will use and test the performance of a new machine learning algorithm called Random Forest.  If performance declines, I may revert back to CHAID.  Below are my picks based on the probability of winning.

Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller: Miller

Josh Neer vs. Duane Ludwig: Neer

Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft: Morecraft

Jorge Rivera vs. Eric Schafer: Schafer

Charlie Brenneman vs. Daniel Roberts: Brenneman

† I must confess this particular prediction makes me skeptical of the model, as I believe Barry’s knockout power combined with Morecraft’s relatively suspect chin should have yielded a prediction favorable to Barry; we will find out Friday night!

As the year progresses I will make more predictions and update the overall accuracy “rating.”

Acerca de Nery Castillo-McIntyre

Soy un apasionado fanático del deporte de Artes Marciales Mixtas. Mi deseo es proveer noticias, educación, y comentario original al público hispano-hablante acerca de este excitante deporte que se postula a competir por popularidad mundial con gigantes como el balompié, el baloncesto, el béisbol, y el football americano. Espero que los lectores encuentren este espacio muy informativo, y que se contagien con mi misma fiebre de Artes Marciales Mixtas.

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  1. Pingback: Selecciones de Jason: UFC en FX « Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español - Miércoles, enero 18, 2012

  2. Pingback: Jason’s Picks: UFC on FOX 2 « Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español - Jueves, enero 26, 2012

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