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Eventos, Jason's Picks, Selecciones de Jason

Jason’s Picks: UFC on FX

Para leer la traducción en Español, oprimir aquí. (To read the Spanish translation, click here).

Editor’s Note: This is the second in a series of fight predictions by guest columnist Jason Noriega. Jason works as an analyst at a U.S. National Laboratory. He has a keen interest in predictive modeling, and lectures around the United States. Jason also participates in predictive modeling competitions and has placed in the top 10% in a number of them using various machine learning algorithms.

The predictive model developed by Jason Noriega for Jason’s Picks is the copyrighted intellectual property of Jason Noriega, Nery Castillo-McIntyre, and Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español.

The biggest assumption in predictive modeling is that the past is a good predictor of the future.  Figure 1 displays the process followed at a high level.  This involves taking historical MMA data and applying an advanced algorithm to develop a model.  The model can then be applied to future MMA events to get predictions.

Figure 1: Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español Predictive Modeling Process

For UFC 142 in Rio, I used the outcomes of 42 historical UFC fights in order to develop my statistical model.  I used the CHAID algorithm to predict who would win and lose (CHAID stands for Chi square – or Χ2 – Automatic Interaction Detector). The event was a good first test for the model’s performance.  It predicted correctly 4 out of the 5 fights in the main card, with an accuracy of 80%*.

José Aldo vs. Chad Mendes: Aldo (correct)

Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson: Johnson (incorrect)

Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio: Palhares (correct)

Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater: Silva (correct)*

Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim: Barboza (correct)

*I classified the Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater fight outcome as correct due to Silva’s dominant performance and the controversial DQ by the referee.


For the next event, UFC on FX in Nashville, TN I will use and test the performance of a new machine learning algorithm called Random Forest.  If performance declines, I may revert back to CHAID.  Below are my picks based on the probability of winning.

Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller: Miller

Josh Neer vs. Duane Ludwig: Neer

Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft: Morecraft

Jorge Rivera vs. Eric Schafer: Schafer

Charlie Brenneman vs. Daniel Roberts: Brenneman

† I must confess this particular prediction makes me skeptical of the model, as I believe Barry’s knockout power combined with Morecraft’s relatively suspect chin should have yielded a prediction favorable to Barry; we will find out Friday night!

As the year progresses I will make more predictions and update the overall accuracy “rating.”


Acerca de Nery Castillo-McIntyre

Soy un apasionado fanático del deporte de Artes Marciales Mixtas. Mi deseo es proveer noticias, educación, y comentario original al público hispano-hablante acerca de este excitante deporte que se postula a competir por popularidad mundial con gigantes como el balompié, el baloncesto, el béisbol, y el football americano. Espero que los lectores encuentren este espacio muy informativo, y que se contagien con mi misma fiebre de Artes Marciales Mixtas.



  1. Pingback: Selecciones de Jason: UFC en FX « Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español - Miércoles, enero 18, 2012

  2. Pingback: Jason’s Picks: UFC on FOX 2 « Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español - Jueves, enero 26, 2012


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